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Cost of war · United States · Iran
Cumulative direct cost of US kinetic operations against Iranian nuclear and IRGC infrastructure during Operation Epic Fury (June 2024 through the Oman-brokered ceasefire of July 2025). The figure below is an extrapolation from the CSIS Day-12 snapshot at $165M/day and freezes at the ceasefire rate; it is not a real-time data feed.
Cumulative US direct cost · as of 2026-06-22
Pentagon-scope direct operations only. Penn Wharton ($47B) and Khanna ($630B–$1T) figures are shown in the methodological-gap section below.
Confirmed munitions expended and sortie counts during the active phase. Unit costs are Pentagon-comptroller flyaway values for FY2025; totals exclude carrier strike-group sustainment which CSIS books separately. Click any column header to re-sort.
| Source | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B-2 Spirit sortie (round-trip) | 14 | 135.000.000 $ | 1.890.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| SM-3 Block IIA interceptor | 40 | 36.000.000 $ | 1.440.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| Tomahawk Block V cruise missile | 319 | 2.500.000 $ | 797.500.000 $ | csis.org |
| MQ-9 Reaper drone (lost in operations) | 24 | 30.000.000 $ | 720.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| Patriot PAC-3 interceptor | 120 | 4.000.000 $ | 480.000.000 $ | csis.org |
| F-35A sortie (combat mission) | 280 | 300.000 $ | 84.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| JASSM-ER air-launched cruise missile | 50 | 1.500.000 $ | 75.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator | 20 | 3.500.000 $ | 70.000.000 $ | warcosts.org |
| Munitions total | 5.556.500.000 $ | |||
Three credible institutions publish three very different totals. Each answers a different question. All three are defensible inside their stated scope. Here is what each one counts.
Pentagon (DoD comptroller)
$25B
Direct operational cost
The Pentagon line accounts for munitions expended, sortie costs, and theater sustainment over the active 12-day phase. It is the figure the comptroller will reconcile against appropriations — the actual cheque written for Epic Fury operations. It deliberately excludes opportunity cost and post-conflict force-posture spend.
SourcePenn Wharton Budget Model
$47B
Direct + indirect economic cost
Penn Wharton’s scope adds GDP drag from the oil-price spike, lost output from gulf shipping diversion, replenishment cost for the depleted Patriot and SM-3 inventory, and a partial-equilibrium estimate of the productivity hit on US transport-fuel-dependent sectors. A defensible economist’s answer to "what did this conflict actually cost the US economy?".
SourceRep. Ro Khanna (HASC ranking member)
$630B – $1T
All-in opportunity cost
Khanna’s framing treats Epic Fury as the proximate cause of a multi-decade Gulf force-posture surge — additional carrier rotations, accelerated GBI/THAAD procurement, expanded Diego Garcia and CENTCOM basing, and indefinite munitions replenishment. By summing expected DoD outlays attributable to the new posture through 2035, the all-in figure clears half a trillion. Politically charged but methodologically defensible.
SourceOne Shahed-136 costs Iran about $35K–$50K. One Patriot PAC-3 used to intercept it costs the US roughly $3.8M. Model your own engagement below: pick a weapon pairing and a launch quantity, see the dollar asymmetry.
Defender interceptor: US Patriot PAC-3 interceptor
Assumes 1:1 interception by defender.
Attacker cost
1.000.000 $
Defender cost
80.000.000 $
Cost ratio
80 : 1
USD asymmetry
79.000.000 $
Asymmetry = defender outlay − attacker outlay. Positive means the defender spent more than the attacker.
Notes: Patriot vs Shahed-136: each $4M PAC-3 shot down a ~$50K kamikaze drone. CSIS notes US shifted to cheaper JDAM/JSOW interceptors after Day 5 in response to this asymmetry.
About 20% of world oil and a quarter of seaborne LNG transits the Strait of Hormuz. During the active phase Iran did not formally close the strait, but rising tanker-insurance premia, a partial diversion of VLCCs around Cape of Good Hope, and a precautionary halt by Maersk and CMA CGM compressed effective transit capacity by about 18%. Brent crude peaked near $96/bbl. US average retail gasoline rose roughly $1.15/gal for six weeks before easing as the ceasefire held and Lloyd’s of London reset war-risk premia in late July.
Tanker war-risk premium
0.25% → 3–8%
Lloyd’s of London, AGCS
US retail gasoline
+$1.15 / gal
6-week peak vs. pre-strike baseline (EIA)
Brent crude peak
~$96 / bbl
Spot peak, day 9 (ICE Brent)
Sources: Lloyd’s of London marine-war committee bulletins (June–July 2025); US EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; AEI Iran-conflict pass-through analysis (2025).
The 12-Day War was three-sided in fiscal terms. Below: estimated direct outlays by the other two belligerents during the active phase, drawn from IDF comptroller leaks, INSS reporting, and the FDD Iran Monitor.
| Belligerent | Estimated direct outlay (USD) | Major components |
|---|---|---|
| United States | $25B – $47B | Munitions, B-2 sorties, carrier sustainment, interceptor depletion |
| Israel | $6B – $12B | Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow-3 interceptions, IAF strike package |
| Iran | $24B – $35B | Ballistic and drone expenditure plus destroyed stockpile and damaged infrastructure |
Sources: CSIS Epic Fury cost estimate; INSS Israel war-cost update; FDD Iran Monitor stockpile valuation; Pentagon comptroller (US).
CSIS estimates the cumulative direct US cost at roughly $32B as of the snapshot date — covering munitions expended (MOPs, Tomahawks, JASSM-ER, AIM-120, SM-3, Patriot PAC-3), 7 B-2 sorties from Whiteman, carrier strike group sustainment, and theater logistics. Penn Wharton, scoping in opportunity cost and indirect economic drag, puts the total nearer $47B; Rep. Ro Khanna’s "all-in" framing including long-tail force posture goes to $630B–$1T. All three are defensible — they measure different things.
Each estimate answers a different question. Pentagon ($25B) counts the cheque the comptroller will write for direct operations. Penn Wharton ($47B) adds GDP-drag and opportunity cost. Khanna ($630B–$1T) treats the strikes as the catalyst for a multi-decade force-posture shift and totals expected DoD outlays. See the breakdown below for the methodological scope of each.
It is severely lopsided in Iran’s favour on a dollar basis. A Shahed-136 one-way drone costs Iran roughly $35K–$50K; a Patriot PAC-3 interceptor used to neutralise one costs the US about $3.8M — a ~76× asymmetry. The SM-3 vs Shahab-3 ratio is comparable. Use the cost-exchange calculator on this page to model your own engagement.
Brent crude spiked to roughly $96/bbl during the active phase; US retail gasoline rose by about $1.15/gal on average for ~6 weeks before easing as the ceasefire held and tanker insurance premiums normalised. AEI estimated household-level pass-through at ~$150/month for an average US driver during the spike.
Per Pentagon BDA and CSIS open-source confirmation: substantial damage to the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear-enrichment complexes (entries and main centrifuge halls), several IRGC ballistic-missile production sites near Karaj and Shahroud, and Iranian air-defence batteries clearing the corridor. The strikes did not target oil export infrastructure or civilian power — a deliberate scoping choice repeatedly emphasised by CENTCOM briefings.
Israel’s reciprocal direct outlay (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow-3 interceptions plus the IAF strike package) ran an estimated $6–12B over the 12-day active phase, per IDF comptroller leaks and INSS reporting. Iran’s own ballistic and drone expenditure plus damage-to-stockpile is estimated at $24–35B by CSIS and the FDD Iran Monitor.
As of the snapshot date the ceasefire mediated by Oman + Qatar continues to hold at the kinetic level, though both sides report ongoing covert-domain activity. The cost counter on this page extrapolates the active-phase burn rate frozen at the ceasefire moment — it is not predicting renewed kinetic operations.
In 2026 inflation-adjusted dollars, the Iraq War cost roughly $2.4T over 8 years (~$300B/yr average; Watson Costs of War). Operation Epic Fury at $32B is therefore roughly 1.3% of total Iraq spend — but per active day it is comparable (~$165M/day) to Iraq’s OIF surge phase. See /cost-of-war/ hub for the burn-rate chart.
Counter values on this page are extrapolations from a CSIS snapshot dated 2026-05-26T00:00:00Z; they are not real-time data feeds. See the sources page for the full bibliography with last-accessed dates and the methodology page for the extrapolation formula.