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Cost of War
Enter your AGI and filing status to estimate the portion of your 2026 federal income tax that funded three current conflict-related budget lines: Ukraine aid since 24 Feb 2022, US strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), and US military aid to Israel since 7 Oct 2023. Then compare your share to eight politically neutral opportunity-cost units that you pick.
Enter your filing status and AGI. We apply 2026 federal brackets to estimate your federal income tax, then multiply by the share each conflict represents of total FY2025 federal outlays ($7.01T). The result is the portion of your federal tax that funded Ukraine aid, US strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury), and US military aid to Israel since October 2023.
Slider stops at $500K; type higher amounts directly. Median US household AGI is roughly $80K.
State is informational for v1 — federal income tax is the same across all 50 states. Reserved for future per-state breakdowns of federal-tax incidence.
Politically neutral by construction — you pick the unit. Eight options sourced from BLS, ED.gov, USDA, CMS, NASA, VA, IRS, and state DOT.
Ukraine
118,88 $
1.18% of your federal tax
Iran (Epic Fury)
46,35 $
0.46% of your federal tax
Israel (since 10/2023)
31,08 $
0.31% of your federal tax
Your total share
196,30 $
2 % of your federal tax
Opportunity cost
Your total share of 196,30 $ equals about 0 years of K-12 teacher salary — or roughly 392,61 $ for a household of 2.
Pick a different comparison above to see what your share could have funded otherwise.
Standard deduction
32.200 $
Taxable income
87.800 $
Estimated federal tax
10.040 $
Effective 8,4 % • Marginal 12 %
Estimate uses 2026 federal brackets (Rev. Proc. 2025-32) and the standard deduction for your filing status. Does not model credits (CTC, EITC, premium tax credit), itemized deductions, AMT, QBI, capital gains rates, or above-the-line adjustments.
Disclaimer
This calculator estimates your share based on publicly disclosed federal budget allocations. It uses 2026 federal income-tax brackets and assumes your federal tax dollars fund the budget proportionally. Real tax incidence differs because income tax disproportionately funds discretionary spending. Numbers are reviewed by FinCalc's editorial team and sourced from CBO, Treasury, CRFB, Kiel Institute, CSIS, and CFR. Not tax or political advice — public-finance education only.
Per-taxpayer Ukraine support varies widely across NATO members. Numbers are cumulative since 24 Feb 2022, sourced from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker. The US figure is the average; your personal share (above) may be higher or lower depending on your AGI.
| Country | Per taxpayer (USD, cumulative) | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | 5.010 $ | oil-fund-supported |
| Denmark | 4.400 $ | |
| Estonia | 1.500 $ | % of GDP leader |
| Germany | 750 $ | |
| United States | 716 $ | this calculator |
| United Kingdom | 540 $ |
Source: Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker, last accessed 2026-05-27. ifw-kiel.de
Federal tax is the visible portion of the cost; less visible costs flow through energy and insurance markets. The American Enterprise Institute estimated that the Strait-of-Hormuz tanker- insurance and oil-price spike triggered by the June 2024 strikes added approximately $150 per month to a typical US household's combined fuel and grocery bill for roughly the first two months after Operation Epic Fury. That premium peaked at $1.20/gallon over baseline before easing as the ceasefire held. None of that shows on your federal return.
Gas price spike
$150/mo
per household, ~60 days (AEI estimate)
Tanker insurance premium
2×
approx. doubling during 12-Day War (Lloyd's of London)
VA forward liability
$2.5T
lifetime veterans' care across all post-9/11 ops (Watson)
Sources: AEI energy markets blog; Lloyd's of London Joint War Committee; Watson Institute Costs of War project veterans' care projection (cumulative, not annual).
US federal spending in FY2025 totalled $7.010 trillion (Treasury Monthly Statement, October 2025). Three conflict-related line items were active during the year: Ukraine aid (cumulative disbursed since 24 Feb 2022, currently $83 billion of a $175 billion Congressional appropriation), US strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury cumulative, CSIS estimate $32 billion), and US military aid to Israel since 7 Oct 2023 (CFR Israel Aid Tracker, $22 billion cumulative legislated through FY2026).
Dividing each by total federal outlays gives the three allocation fractions used in the calculator: Ukraine 1.18%, Iran 0.46%, Israel 0.31%. The combined fraction is 1.96% — meaning roughly two cents of every federal dollar funded these three lines in FY2025. We then multiply your estimated federal income tax by each fraction.
The simplification. Federal income tax does not actually fund the federal budget uniformly. Income tax (≈ 50% of receipts) is the primary funder of discretionary spending (≈ 25% of outlays), while payroll tax funds mandatory programs (Social Security, Medicare). The two conflict line items that hit the discretionary budget — Iran ops and most of the Ukraine / Israel weapons procurement — are disproportionately funded by income tax. So the true share of your income-tax dollars going to these conflicts is roughly 1.3–1.4× higher than the calculator shows. We use the simpler formulation because it matches the arithmetic anyone can verify against published budget totals.
2026 tax math. The calculator applies the 2026 federal brackets and standard deduction (Rev. Proc. 2025-32, OBBBA-amended): 10% / 12% / 22% / 24% / 32% / 35% / 37%, with the standard deduction at $16,100 single & MFS, $32,200 MFJ, and $24,150 head of household. It does not model the Child Tax Credit, EITC, premium tax credit, AMT, QBI deduction, itemized deductions, capital-gains preference rates, or above-the-line adjustments. Your actual federal tax is typically 10–30% lower than the calculator's estimate after credits — apply the same allocation fractions to your real tax for a tighter number.
What this calculator is not. It is not partisan commentary on whether the aid or the strikes were justified. It is not a real-time tracker (numbers update quarterly when Kiel, CSIS, CRFB, and CFR publish new snapshots). It does not include indirect costs (veterans' care over decades, opportunity cost of public-debt service, second-order energy- market effects) — those appear on the methodology page as ranges with citations.
Reviewed by FinCalc's editorial team. All numbers cite Tier 1 institutions and are spot-checked against multiple sources before each PR. The methodology page explains the per-second counter math, the stockpile-valuation gap, and why three different cumulative totals (Pentagon $25B / Penn Wharton $47B / Khanna $630B for Iran) can all be defended at once.
We estimate your 2026 federal income tax from your AGI, filing status, and the IRS standard deduction (Rev. Proc. 2025-32). We then multiply that tax by the share each conflict represents of total FY2025 federal outlays ($7.01 trillion): Ukraine aid ≈ 1.18%, Iran (Operation Epic Fury) ≈ 0.46%, Israel military aid since Oct 2023 ≈ 0.31%. Add the three and you have your share.
No — it is an order-of-magnitude estimate. The simplification 'your federal tax × budget share' assumes income-tax dollars fund the federal budget proportionally. In reality, federal income tax disproportionately funds discretionary spending (roughly 1.3–1.4×), so the true share of your income-tax dollars going to these conflicts is somewhat higher than the calculator shows. We accept that bias for v1 in favour of arithmetic the user can verify.
They are the three active US conflict-related budget lines with public, authoritative disbursement totals. Ukraine aid since 24 Feb 2022 (CRFB, Kiel Institute), US strikes on Iran 2024–2025 (CSIS Operation Epic Fury tracker), and US military aid to Israel since 7 Oct 2023 (Council on Foreign Relations aid tracker). We do not include indirect or speculative figures from non-Tier-1 sources.
Per-taxpayer Ukraine support varies widely: Norway approximately $5,010 cumulative (highest, oil-fund supported); Denmark $4,400; Estonia $1,500; Germany $750; UK $540; US $716. US per-taxpayer is on the higher end among NATO members but lower than several Nordic and Baltic states once GDP and population are factored. Numbers from the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker.
No. The result reflects federal tax only, because the three conflict line items are funded from the federal budget. Your state and local taxes fund state-level spending (education, Medicaid match, highways, public safety), not Department of Defense or USAID outlays. The state selector is reserved for future per-state breakdowns of federal-tax incidence.
Indirect costs are real but harder to attribute. The American Enterprise Institute estimates the Hormuz oil-price spike around the June 2024 strikes added roughly $150/month to a typical US household's fuel and grocery bill for about two months. Tanker-insurance premiums roughly doubled. These costs do not appear on your federal return but reduce real household income.
Yes. We update the allocation fractions when CRFB, Kiel, CSIS, or CFR publish new disbursement snapshots — typically quarterly. Total federal outlays come from Treasury Monthly Statements. See the methodology page for source dates and the update cadence.
Every number in this calculator is sourced from a Tier 1 institution (Treasury, CBO, CRFB, Kiel, CSIS, CRS, CFR). The sources page (/cost-of-war/sources/) and methodology page (/cost-of-war/methodology/) list the exact URLs, snapshot dates, and conversion arithmetic. Open the developer console on /cost-of-war/your-share/ to inspect the constants — they are plain TypeScript.
Disclaimer
This calculator estimates your share based on publicly disclosed federal budget allocations. It uses 2026 federal income-tax brackets and assumes your federal tax dollars fund the budget proportionally — a simplification that understates the discretionary-spending share by roughly 30–40%. Numbers are sourced from CBO, Treasury, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker, CSIS, and the Council on Foreign Relations Israel Aid Tracker, reviewed by FinCalc's editorial team, and updated quarterly when those institutions publish new snapshots. We report on financial costs only; humanitarian metrics link to UN OCHA. FinCalc does not take an editorial position on whether the aid or the strikes were justified — this is a public-finance reference and lets readers draw their own conclusions. Not tax advice and not political advice.
$188B Congressional → $83B disbursed Sankey, donor comparison, weapons inventory.
Read more
Strike inventory, methodology gap ($25B/$47B/$630B), Hormuz oil impact.
Read more
Counter math, stockpile valuation, inflation adjustment, update cadence.
Read more